Information structure analysis for quantitative assessment of mineral resources and the discovery of a silver deposit     

Wang  Yutian  Tan  Bingqi  Wang  Yifeng  Wu  Jiangtao 《Natural Resources Research》1994,3(4):284-294

We propose an information-structure-analysis (ISA) method to quantify the correlations between quantitative and qualitative variables as well as within each type of variable. This method is applied to the evaluation of mineral resources in the western Zheijiang Province of China. The district contains a number of silver-bearing Fe–Cu–Pb–Zn mineral deposits near igneous complexes and FeCuPbZn zones away from the complexes. Silver anomalies occur not only in the known Fe–Cu–Zn–Pb deposits, but also in the country rock, suggesting the possible existence of silver deposits far from the igneous complexes.The tonnage distribution of silver is modeled by Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation is conducted on the basis of the correlations between silver (Ag) and lead (Pb), since no known data on silver is available. The known tonnage distribution of lead in 11 control cells was used to approximate the tonnage distribution of silver in the Monte Carlo simulation. With ISA and Monte Carlo methods, the total amount of potential polymetallic resources in 49 cells in the western Zhejiang Provice is predicted. Significantly, a deposit with about 24 tonnes of silver has been found within our exploration target area.  相似文献   

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Emil D. Attanasi  Timothy C. Coburn  Philip A. Freeman 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(4):223-239

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Emil D. AttanasiEmail:

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基于GIS的攀枝花城市地质环境质量分区评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

喻凤莲  张成江  倪师军  徐争启  王德伟  陈敏  熊晶璇 《地质灾害与环境保护》2007,18(1):79-82

攀枝花是一座典型的矿业城市,随着经济发展,矿山地质环境问题严重.在(GIS)地理信息系统技术的支持下,结合多种地质环境因素对该地区进行了地质环境质量现状分析评价,采用层次分析法建立了评价模型,结果表明区内大部分地区地质环境较好.地质环境差的地方主要分布在各大采矿区,地质灾害较严重.文中除了论述评价要素的识别,重点讨论了评价模型的确立和基于GIS的分析方法,最后对评价结果作了分析.  相似文献   

基于人工神经网络的区域地质灾害危险性预测评价   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

吕远强  林杜军  罗伟强 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2007,18(1):95-98,114

地质灾害危险性预测评价的准确性,主要取决于基础资料的可靠性和数学模型的合理性。论文结合工程实例,尝试用人工神经网络方法(改进的神经网络BP模型)对区域地质灾害危险性预测进行评价研究。然后与目前常用的方法(如层次分析法、信息量法和模糊综合评判法等)所得出的结果相比较。结果表明,运用人工神经网络方法对区域地质灾害危险性预测评价相对常用方法更准确、可靠,具有一定的实用意义及推广价值。  相似文献   

地质灾害危险性评估及其半定量分析法在罗家寨气田内部集输工程中的应用     

周建中  刘忠敏张博 《中国煤田地质》2007,19(1):47-51,80

罗家寨气田内部集输工程地质灾害危险性评估项目属于一级评估项目，我们在该项目中运用了GPS、遥感数字化正射影像地图等新技术、新方法，同时采用了灾损率（Zs）法、风险区划法半定量的综合评估方法，通过系统的整理第一手资料和综合分析，对本地区地质灾害危险性进行现状评估、预测评估和综合评估，评价工程建设用地适宜性并提出地质灾害的防治措施建议。  相似文献   

四川“金土地工程”区农业地质调查评价的方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

金立新李忠惠  刘应平贾小川陈德友  杨忠芳 《地质通报》2007,26(11):1413-1417

简要介绍了四川省地质调查院在"金土地工程"区开展农业地质调查评价试点研究项目的背景、目标任务、方法技术和提交的主要成果。通过试点研究,确定了该项工作的内容以土壤地球化学测量为主,地质、遥感等多种综合调查手段为辅的综合调查,其核心是土地质量的地球化学综合评估。  相似文献   

Addressing Scottish rural fuel poverty through a regional industrial symbiosis strategy for the Scottish forest industries sector     

Barbara Illsley  Bill Lynch 《Geoforum》2007,38(1):21-32

Tackling fuel poverty is central to the delivery of the Scottish Executive’s commitment to social justice. Many Scottish rural households are not linked into the mains gas network and rely on expensive alternatives, despite being surrounded by plentiful supplies of low-cost renewable wood biomass. A regional study was undertaken to establish the potential market for pelletised wood fuel, available as a low-value by-product from the rapidly expanding Scottish forest industry sector. The wider implications of the research findings are analysed by extending the principles of industrial symbiosis from a site-specific to a regional scale. Promoting an indigenous pellet-based wood fuel market for rural Scotland would fulfil important Scottish Executive economic, social and environmental sustainability objectives. Adding off-site social symbiotic elements increases the potential for on-site technical symbiosis in nascent Scottish forest industry clusters. At present, market failure is preventing the realisation of these benefits, and the paper concludes by identifying ways in which market intermediation, through wood fuel energy service companies, might overcome the current barriers to exploiting such symbiosis.  相似文献   

GIS‐assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno,Southern Italy: Part I. Maximum run‐out     

G. Toyos  D. Oramas Dorta  C. Oppenheimer  M. T. Pareschi  R. Sulpizio  G. Zanchetta 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(10):1491-1502

Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run‐out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1·2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 10⁴ and 10⁵ m³. Flow mobility ratios (ΔH/L) derived from the x, y, z coordinates of the lower‐most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0·27 and 0·09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run‐out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0·4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic user interfaces and with modest computing resources. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems     

Iunio Iervolino  Massimiliano Giorgio  Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(9):1151-1168

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

季节尺度区域气候模拟适应调整时间选取问题的数值试验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

钟中  胡轶佳  闵锦忠  徐洪蕾 《气象学报》2007,65(4):469-477

文中利用区域气候模式RegCM3,以1998年夏季中国异常气候事件为例,对季节尺度区域气候模拟适应调整时间的选取问题进行了数值研究。共做了11个试验,每个试验的适应调整时间最短为10 d,最长为6个月,以检验适应调整时间长短对夏季中国异常气候事件模拟结果的影响。结果表明:对于大气变量而言,模式通常在经过4—8 d的适应调整时间后,就进入"气候模态"运行,此后模拟误差主要是由于模式对区域内大气过程描述能力不足造成的,对适应调整时间选取不再敏感,这进一步证实了区域气候模拟是一个边值问题的观点。各气候区平均降水量模拟结果受适应调整时间影响也不大,但不同的适应调整时间对降水分布格局模拟将产生一定影响,降水分布模拟结果随适应调整时间的不同存在一定的不确定性,这种不确定性通常出现在强降水发生区域。总之,对于季节尺度降水模拟,适应调整时间大于2个月效果更好。对降水分布格局模拟误差和东亚夏季风系统进退过程之间关系的进一步分析发现,模式对受夏季风系统影响比较大的区域模拟的降水相关系数变化性也比较大,因此,发展合适的积云对流参数化方案以提高受夏季风系统直接影响区域强降水过程的描述能力是改进区域气候模式对中国区域夏季气候模拟效果的有效途径。  相似文献